Attributing and Projecting Heatwaves Is Hard: We Can Do Better
نویسندگان
چکیده
It sounds straightforward. As the Earth warms due to increased concentration of greenhouse gases in atmosphere, global temperatures rise and so heatwaves become warmer as well. This means that a fixed temperature threshold is passed more often: probability extreme heat increases. However, land use changes, vegetation change, irrigation, air pollution, other changes also drive local regional trends heatwaves. Sometimes they enhance heatwave intensity, but can counteract effects climate some regions, mechanisms impact on have not yet been fully identified. Climate models simulate intensity reasonably well large scales. annual daily maximum do follow warming over including Eastern United States parts Asia, reflecting influence drivers natural variability. Also, variability unrealistic many models, fail standard quality checks. Therefore, reliable attribution projection change remain major scientific challenge particularly where moisture budget simulated, surface short-lived forcers, soil interactions are important.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Earth’s Future
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['2328-4277']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1029/2021ef002271